The Oldfield-Pike Project

In a report published by HSBC on predictions for the global economy in 2050, there were listed conditions for which create strong and sustained growth. The variables and models are based on the work of Robert Barro: Determinants of Economic Growth: a cross-country empirical study.

The variables are as follows:

  • degree of monetary stability
  • level of democracy
  • the rule of law
  • the size of government
  • level of education
  • health of population
  • fertility of population

The perfect conditions for the perfect economic model is: a very stable inflation rate, averaging less than 2%; weak democracy; strong rule of law; a high education level where the average years of schooling is 10; a healthy population and a relatively low fertility rate, but high enough to maintain population levels.

Now, most of these are glaringly obvious apart from, perhaps, the bit about weak democracy.

Barro’s work actually showed that too much democracy…

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